California Democratic Party Releases Final California VOTER Index Tracking Survey
Today, the California Democratic Party (CADEM) released the final tracking poll from the California VOTER Index on the California Governor’s race. This 1,200 sample tracking survey was conducted by EVITARUS Research–the only Black-and Latina-led full-service public opinion research firm in California–from May 14-16.
Today’s topline survey results:
- Steve Hilton (R) – 22%
- Xavier Becerra (D) – 21%
- Tom Steyer (D) – 15%
- Chad Bianco (R) -10%
- Katie Porter (D) – 7%
- Matt Mahan (D) – 4%
- Antonio Villaraigosa (D) – 1%
- Tony Thurmond (D) – 1%
- Betty Yee (D) – <1%
- Eric Swalwell (D) – <1%
Party Chair Rusty Hicks hosted a media availability to answer reporters’ questions. Below are remarks from Chair Hicks:
“Today we are releasing the fifth and final edition of the California VOTER Index in the race for California’s next Governor – a 1,200-sample tracking poll conducted by EVITARUS Research between May 14-16.
The result of today’s track shows the following movement from our last track on May 4th:
First, voters are highly engaged with 37% saying they have already voted. Of those who have not yet voted, nearly all have a plan to do so.
Second, Trump-backed Steve Hilton garners 22% support and continues to outpace Chad Bianco’s 10% support. In addition, he has consolidated 57% of the Republican vote – a 9-point gain from the May 4th results.
Third, Xavier Becerra holds 21% of the vote and continues to consolidate support of both Democrats and Independents.
Becerra currently maintains the broadest coalition of any candidate for Governor with 35% of Democrats – a 6-point increase from May 4th – and 19% of Independents.
Finally, aside from Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, no other Democratic candidate – including Katie Porter, Matt Mahan, Antonio Villariagosa and Tony Thurmond – holds more than single digit support with two weeks until Election Day. The tracker released on May 4th showed these same results.
With two weeks to go, the race is far from over – especially given the many twists and turns we’ve already seen.
There are still 60+ candidates on the ballot. There are still two primary Republicans and 6 primary Democrats.
Yet, we are clearly in a different place than we were two months ago. Some candidates are surging. Others are falling behind. And it is clear from our survey results that voters are paying attention to both.
In recent months I have stated California Democrats would do whatever was required to ensure we elect a Democrat as our next Governor. These results show we are moving closer to doing exactly that.
Our Party is working hard to ensure California Democrats make their voices heard in this important election. We are encouraging voters to either: (1) Place their ballot in an official drop-box or (2) vote in-person on or before Election, or (3) put their ballot in the mail no later than one week prior to Election Day to ensure it is counted.
My message to California Democrats is simple: Cast your ballot today and ensure your vote is counted in this important election.”
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Four previous California VOTER Index releases include a March 24 baseline poll and tracking surveys released on April 7, April 23, and May 4.
The surveys included each candidate’s official ballot designation and party affiliation. In addition, oversamples were completed for Latino, Black and Asian-American voters to avoid small sample sizes and ensure clarity in data results.
The California VOTER Index follows an open letter sent by Chair Rusty Hicks to Democratic candidates for Governor, including those who subsequently filed for the Primary Election ballot.
CADEM launched the California VOTER Index to help all candidates honestly assess their viable path to win.
